Dryden Makes it Ten

Ken Dryden declared today, making him the tenth candidate for the Liberal leadership.

Dryden brings the most compelling backstory to the race - an extraordinary goaltender in Montreal, a public intellectual and accomplished writer and the Martin government's lead on childcare negotiations with the provinces. On paper, he's perfect. In reality, doubts about his charisma continue to dog him.

In making his announcement Dryden said:

"As kids we knew whatever Canada was then it would be far greater tomorrow. That is the Canada I see today. That was the Canada born into me. Long before I ever wore the jersey, I wore the jersey."

Dryden said he is running because he woke up angry the day after the federal election that defeated his Liberal party and elected Stephen Harper's Conservatives.

He said he was angry because the Tories planned to scrap a national system of early learning and child care he championed. Dryden says he has big ideas for Canada's future and that the education of the country's children is key.

Dryden should be considered one of the top-tier candidates although it would be too soon to label him a front-runner.

Liberals to merge with NDP?

A new poll suggests the federal Liberals and New Democrats should merge:

The Decima Research poll found 25% of Canadians believed the parties should unite.
Voters who supported either party in the Jan. 23 election were even more receptive to the idea: 36% of Liberals favoured a merger, compared to 32% of New Democrats.

In the history of bad ideas, this is a top contender.

But it plays into the growing Liberal desperation to attract a few percentage points of socialist support. Liberal leadership candidates like Ignatieff and Rae are moving to the left in an attempt to gather up a few stray NDP votes. But it looks like Gerard Kennedy is taking a more strategic tact. Despite his substantial lefty credentials, Kennedy will reflect the centrist values of the majority of Canadians:

The advisers say that Mr. Kennedy does not need to advertise his progressive credentials and will take a centrist tack because he believes it is important to drive the economy to pay for social services and because it is good strategy to win a leadership race and elections.

"He's going to run to the centre because that's where he is philosophically. And he's going to run to the centre because that's how you win elections in Canada," one Kennedy campaign strategist said.

Smart.

Kennedy to Formally Announce Run on Thursday

Former Ontario education minister Gerard Kennedy will formally announce his Liberal leadership run on Thursday. The only surprise in all this is that most people, including the media, already thought he declared when he resigned his Cabinet seat. There is something to be said for message clarity.

While not generating as much media buzz as Ignatieff or Rae, Kennedy may be the one to watch.

Former minister Ken Dryden will also announce his bid on Friday.

According to a recent Decima poll, both Dryden and Kennedy have strong growth potential among voters.

LPC has announced the national and convention returning officers.

"Call me Bob" says Liberal arriviste Bob Rae on his website (still coming soon!) and as he works his charms on the media. Remember, he's just a regular guy.

HooRae

Time flies. It seems like only a few weeks ago that former NDP premier and MP Bob Rae joined the Liberal Party.

Hey! It was only a few weeks ago.

Today the Liberal arriviste formally announced his plans to seek the leadership of the Liberal Party. Given his disastrous tenure as premier, it's no big surprise that Rae would want to focus his efforts on something else. He's picked Quebec separtists as the shiny object to distract Liberals, noting he was a big supporter of both the Meech Lake and Charlottetown constitutional accords.

Yes, Bob Rae is gonna party like it's 1989.

Indeed, what could inspire Canadians more than another round of divisive and unnecessary constitutional wrangling? And with Pequiste support dropping, what is motivating this Captain Canada act? Memo to Bob: the Captain Canada suit fits Brian Tobin better.

When the Star called for new ideas, I don't think this is what they had in mind.

Scott Brison has entered the leadership campaign. While relatively new to the Party, unlike some (cough, cough, Bob Rae) he ran and was elected as a Liberal and did yeoman's service in the Commons during the sponsorship debacle.

Joining Brison and Rae in entering the race is Carolyn Bennett, the second female candidate . She was joined at the announcement by Ontario Attorney General Michael Bryant and former Ontario Liberal leader Lyn McLeod.

Get used to it

Another article on the Rae-Ignatieff roomie angle. Expect a lot more in the months ahead.

Camelot North?

The Kennedy campaign appears set to get a boost from the endorsement of a group of mostly 30-something, mostly Ontario-based MP's. Kennedy, it is expected, will be a strong voice arguing for a turn to the political left for the federal Grits.

The "let's vacate the political centre" movement appears to be gathering steam. Stephen Harper must be smiling.

Brison will announce on Sunday.

Media Love Rae and Ignatieff

The Canadian media are in love with the idea of Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff as frontrunners in the Liberal leadership campaign. Both are high profile individuals with a compelling backstory. They were even roomates in university and their families are close. Reporters seem to be in awe of their academic credentials and worldy charms.

What the media miss, of course, is that a leadership campaign is about more than headlines. It's about hard work and organization. Both Rae and Ignatieff are trying to borrow other people's political machines but their lack of roots in the party are becoming increasingly clear.

In truth, there really are no frontrunners yet. That opens the door to other candidates like Kennedy or Brison who understand retail politics or someone like Dion who has earned points for slugging it out in the House of Commons for ten years.

Of course, with everyone tilting left, this ship could sink anyway.

Here is a question: what the hell is Ken Dryden doing? If he is planning on running, where has he been?

Bevilacqua, Volpe, Brison and Rae

The Liberal leadership contest is about to get more crowded with bids expected to be announced this week from longtime Liberal MPs Maurizio Bevilacqua, 45, and Joe Volpe, 58 as well as newish Liberal Scott Brison, 38.

But wait, there's more. Former ministers Ken Dryden and Carolyn Bennett are also expected to enter the contest in the next few weeks.

Liberal arriviste Bob Rae will also bring his considerable baggage to the campaign. A Strategic Counsel survey found that of those Ontarians who had heard of Mr. Rae, more said he was a poor choice to lead the party (34 per cent) than a good choice (31 per cent).

Dreamboat academic Michael Ignatieff is trying to get past his support for the War in Iraq by staking out more ground on the Liberal Party's left wing.

Fake Left, Go Right?

Some Liberals are trying to unite the left, according to the Globe's Jane Taber.

Many Liberals feel the party drifted too far to the right, and that cost them votes in the last election, where they lost seats to the NDP.

"The Tories have the right flank," a senior Liberal said. "We need to take centre and not lose anything on the left."

Others say that if party moves to the left, Liberals could harm their reputation as good fiscal managers.

"We have got to plant our standard firmly on the centre-left of Canadian politics," leadership hopeful Michael Ignatieff told Alberta Liberals last weekend.

Maclean's Paul Wells has some interesting thoughts on the leadership campaign buried at the end of his piece on the opening of Parliament. First on Belinda Stronach:

Almost the only good news for the Liberals last week was the departure of Belinda Stronach, who would make a perfectly credible senior staffer in any minister's office but who seems to think she is owed the keys to 24 Sussex Drive. She could not have quit the embryonic leadership race in less graceful fashion if making an ass of herself had actually been her goal.

"The Liberal party really needs a much more profound overhaul." She would rather stay out and talk about her "inspiring ideas." Despite repeated invitations from a room full of reporters, she was unable to identify a single idea, inspiring or otherwise. "I won't be trapped in politics," she said. Yet her extended tantrum amounted to one long complaint that she has been barred from signing up truckloads of instant Liberals and that she found real Liberals too tough a market to convince. She will run again for something, someday, and be taken too seriously once again.

And then this on Stephane Dion's announcement of his leadership bid:

Dion's stump speech is a bit of a fixer-upper, but the author of the Clarity Act and the most heartening comeback kid of the Martin era had a good answer when a reporter asked whether he wasn't pursuing a lost cause: "Everything I've succeeded at in politics was presented, when I started, as being impossible."

Michael Ignatieff's campaign launch in Toronto later the same day was far bigger and more polished. But I was happy I had driven east from Ottawa to see Dion, instead of west to Ignatieff. Nobody in that little room at the Palais des Congrès was there because they thought Dion will be prime minister. They were there because they thought he should be. Their simple optimism had the virtue of novelty.

He haunts us still. Turns out Warren Kinsella's mentor David Dingwall was entitled to his entitlements.

Godfrey Pulls Out

Liberal MP John Godfrey announced today he won't seek the Liberal leadership, citing health problems.

While Godfrey was never thought to be a strong contender, he was a credible one, and his withdrawal is a loss for the party. Stay well John.

Is Kennedy the One to Watch?

Now that the campaign is largely underway, it is increasingly clear that no single candidate will dominate. Ignatieff has scored barrells of ink in the press but continues to be dogged by his controversial, to Canadian eyes, views on Iraq. Finally-a-Liberal Bob Rae is running into hostility from many Liberals, angry that a man with no connection to the party presumes to lead it.

Brison is wounded, Dryden is silent, Stronach is gone and even Fontana-mania looks like a lost dream.

Into the breach comes Gerard Kennedy. He's got credible time as a provincial minister, a solid background as a food bank manager and some clear media savy. Add it up and you get fawning profiles and some suggestion of growing momentum. If Kennedy can translate that into organizational support in ridings across the country, then he may be the one to watch.

The Rt. Hon. John Turner says Liberals are rushing too fast in choosing a new leader:

"My view has been: let's get a new generation in first. Let's get a policy convention as to what the party stands for second, and then let's go get some candidates. I think we're doing it in reverse at the moment."

But John, we had no option.

Ignatieff and Rae Battle Baggage

As they begin their bids for the Liberal leadership, both Michael Ignatieff and finally-a-Liberal-Bob Rae are trying to get past the considerable baggage both bring to the contest.

Rae's dismal term as Ontario's first, and potentially last, NDP premier continues to haunt him. Ontario remembers all too well his record of fiscal mismanagement and government incompetence. Couple that with absolutely no affiliation to the Liberal Party and it starts to look like a battle that perhaps even Eddie Goldenberg can't win.

Ignatieff's challenge is no less difficult. His writings and teachings at Harvard's Kennedy School have put scrutiny on his support for the War in Iraq, deeply unpopular with Canadians, his seeming support for some forms of torture and the fact he hasn't lived in Canada, or been a member of the Liberal Party, for more than 30 years.

So how will Rae and Ignatieff try to move beyond this baggage? With the Keith Davey strategy of getting the bad news out first, using the media's superficiality to their advantage. Time will tell if this will work.

Meanwhile, Martha Hall-Findlay says she has no baggage.

Let's Get Ready to Rumble

No fewer than 16 potential Liberal leaders schmoozed those lonely Alberta Liberals on the weekend. But where was Landslide Annie? Surely in a field that included Paul Zed there was space on the panel, and in the contest, for the former Deputy Prime Minister.

The would-be leaders diagnosed the Party's ills, and what, other than the Martin "Board", caused the electoral defeat.

Finally-a-Liberal -Bob Rae was one of them, and all but declared his intentions the join the race.

The Globe's Campell Clark winnows down the field to the top five candidates: Gerard Kennedy, Bob Rae, Michael Ignatieff, Scott Brison and Stéphane Dion. Calgary Grit gives his on-the-scene take on the gathering.

Ignatieff is generating a lot of interest, but begins the campaign addressing the baggage of his support for the War in Iraq, his convulated comments on the use of torture, and the fact he hasn't really lived in Canada for three decades. He tackles these issues in an (on-the-record) interview with Peter C. Newman where he admits that presenting himself as an American in his writing was wrong:

I shouldn't have used the "we." I'm not and have never been and will never be an American citizen, so I shouldn't have done that. Sometimes you want to increase your influence over your audience by appropriating their voice, but it was a mistake.

Ignatieff is going to have to work harder to win over the pundits. Jeffery Simpson, elder statesman of the punditocracy, slammed Ignatieff in Saturday's Globe saying "Such is the state of the federal Liberal Party that someone who has paid scant dues to it -- and limited ones to Canada for 35 years -- is considered a possible leadership winner...".

Meanwhile, Hugh Winsor tackles the Iraq baggage issue today in the Globe.

Iggy Is In

The battle is truly joined.

Michael Ignatieff formally launched his campaign today.

“I am fighting to revive faith, not just in the Liberal party, but in politics itself. I’m a devoted Liberal, I’ve been one all my life. That’s why I’m in the fight to renew the party I love.”

Dion Makes It Official

Stephane Dion officially entered the race to become Liberal leader today:

"We cannot afford to miss out on the next industrial revolution: the sustainable economy," Dion said as he announced his bid.

"For that reason, we must weave together economic growth, social justice, the environment and public health. That is why I want to become leader of the Liberal party and then prime minister of Canada."

Former minister Don Boudria will chair Dion's campaign.

Stronach's Exit

So what does Belinda Stronach's exit, due, she says, to a flawed process, do to the Liberal leadership campaign?

According to a Halifax newspaper, Stronach's exit helps Scott Brison.

According to a Toronto newspaper, Stronach's exit helps Gerard Kennedy.

Meanwhile, BC's Hedy Fry is considering a leadership run.

It is, as one editorial suggests, a free-for-all.

Stronach Shocker

Belinda bows out.

Stronach held a news conference earlier today in Ottawa with the surprising announcement that she will not seek the Liberal leadership.

The one-time Tory leadership candidate was thought to be the strongest female contender for the Liberal crown.

Questions about her fluency in french and the delegate selection system prompted Stronach's decision:

[S]he would like to see an "even more open and democratic" process that would see more people encouraged to join the party at affordable prices and with an opportunity to participate directly in the selection of a leader rather through a delegated process

Stronach's withdrawl will shake up the campaign and likely prompt ofther potential female candidates like Carolyn Bennett to reconsider their options.

Peterson Slams Rae as Liberal Tourist

Former Ontario Premier David Peterson slammed Bob Rae for his liberal leadership aspirations.

"Here's a guy, a lot of people went to war with him and now he wants to lead the army without even enlisting."

But Peterson, who's expected to back rookie MP Michael Ignatieff's candidacy, warned that Rae has "got some terrible burdens to overcome."

"One is his record and one is his loyalty."

Peterson insisted he doesn't hold any personal grudge against Rae but is simply being realistic about the reception he'll get from Liberal militants who've given blood for the party through good and bad times.

"It's so obvious. Everybody's talking about it . . . It's a helluva high hill to climb."

Party politics "is tribal and it's primordial and it's based on trust and affection and shared experiences," Peterson observed.

"Some people would say you just can't pick the cherries off the top."

So, who is Gerard Kennedy? The Globe asks the question as well.

Duelling PhDs Ignatieff and Dion will formally launch their campaigns tomorrow.

Kennedy Makes it Official

And then there were three - official candidates at least.

Gerard Kennedy resigned as Ontario's Minister of Education and, surprising no one, announced he will seek the leadership of the Liberal Party.

Happy Rae Day

It's finally happened. Bob Rae has applied to join the Liberal Party.

The longtime socialist who was an NDP MP from 1978-82 and NDP premier from 1990-95 finally took the step to become a member of the Party he wants to lead.

Rae's interest in the leadership, but not a membership, was a sticking point for many Grits, as the Globe points out:

Mr. Rae's status as a non-Liberal has led to some swipes inside the party and on Liberal blogs -- one yesterday referred to him as "still-not-a-Liberal Bob Rae."

Thanks for the shout out to this blog, Globe and Mail.

Finally-a-Liberal Bob Rae will announce his leadership quest soon.

Gerard Kennedy will make his announcement today, and will be replaced at Queen's Park. He is also expected to resign his Parkdale-High Park seat.

Battle of the Big Brains

Dion versus Ignatieff. Montreal versus Toronto. PhD versus PhD.

Whatever the outcome of the Liberal Leadership race, no one can say it didn't attract smart candidates. The father of the Clarity Act, Dion is a Trudeau-esque intellectual who faced down Lucien Bouchard in a triumph of reason over passion. Ignatieff is the Harvard professor, global intellectual and darling of the media elites. He returned to Canada earlier this year to parachute into a safe Liberal seat.

Both men are smart, brilliant even. But the political playing fields of history are scattered with the bodies of smart people. It takes more than brains to be a successful leader. It takes charisma, media savvy and the common touch. It remains to be seen if either man has the right mix to become leader and prime minister.

Both men will launch their campaigns this week.

Gerard Kennedy will need to make his decision today, under pressure from Premier McGuinty, brother of putative candidate David. The Liberal Party can be a small town sometimes.

Children are the future, says Still-Not-A-Liberal-Bob Rae. With that kind of profound insight and a mustache, he could be leader - of the NDP.

Leadership Poll Says Nothing

Decima surveyed Canadians about who they would like to see as the Liberal leader. A poll like this, so early in the contest, is virtually meaningless. Not surprisingly, the results reflected name-recognition rather than real support, or, more importantly, organizational strength.

Decima says their poll "suggests Mr. Rae, Mr. Ignatieff, Ms. Stronach and Mr. Brison have remarkably similar support among voters ". That support is all below 10%, showing this poll is largely a media exercise.

The interesting nugget in the poll is how these potential leaders, all relatively new to the Liberal ranks, would impact supporters of other parties.

But the poll found Mr. Rae could lure away the most NDP voters (40 per cent) while Mr. Brison and Mr. Ignatieff could lure away the most Conservative voters (31 per cent each). At 25 per cent, Ms. Stronach was the least popular among those planning to vote Tory.

Not surprising that Bob Rae could attract more New Democrats, given that he was one and, as we have noted, is still not a Liberal.

Gerard Kennedy is ready to run, according to the Hill Times, in an article describing how membership forms will be handed out, always a contentious issue.

The House opens today and Ralph Klein was crushed in Alberta by his own party. Harsh. Who would have thought Ralph would have faced such a Joe Clark moment?