Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Is Iggy Fading?

A new poll from the Globe and Mail shows the Liberal leadership battle is a tighter race than many expected. Although anointed early as the heir to the throne, a gaffe prone Michael Ignatieff has not walked away with the race.

Now the Globe poll puts Iggy only 2 points ahead of Bob Rae and 6 points ahead of Stephane Dion. The second tier candidates are Kennedy and Dryden, both with 9% support among Liberal Party members who will vote to select delegates. The remaining candidates each have less than 3% support.

While the poll is useful, it doesn't reflect the GOTV machine that Iggy and the other candidates have assembled and which may make the difference on a riding by riding basis.

But with conventional wisdom dictating that Ignatieff has little room for growth on second and third ballots, this must be troubling news for the Iggy camp. And it must be great news for Rae and his fellow travelers.

But the dark horse remains Stephane Dion. He's the only candidate who has exceeded expectations in a disappointing and lacklustre race.

6 Comments:

At 1:09 PM, Blogger Cerberus said...

It's only "fading" if you have something to compare against. Where is the poll suggesting he was much higher and therefore "fading"?

Polls in the spring show Dryden and Rae ahead, or all of them pretty much jumbled together.

 
At 1:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey, it ain't over til it's over.

 
At 2:00 PM, Blogger Matt Campbell said...

Agreed. To fade would have to indicate previously higher polls, and now lower polls. Since this race has begun, it's been close, and it remains to be close. If anything, he's gaining steam - with three huge caucus endorsements last week, bringing about half of liberal MPs to his camp. That really speaks.

There's no logic in counting this man out early.

 
At 2:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

i agree. fading is the wrong description.

i think he's overexposed now and we're getting bored of him.

 
At 6:20 PM, Blogger ottlib said...

The only thing I took from that poll is everybody allowed themselves to become way overworked about the prospect of Joe Volpe holding the balance of power.

 
At 8:17 PM, Blogger Daniel Menard said...

LOOK, Ignatieff is like a backseat Politician like a backseat driver most of his roles in cabinet since he's been in politics have been ambassadorial and dilletantist, at best. Even beyond his ability to blunder indecisively his stance on middle east issues and what "exactly" his views are aren't clear because he keeps on changing his mind...The bottom line is this, WE DON'T NEED ANOTHER JOHN TURNER for Liberal leadership. Stephane Dion is a seasoned politician, with a lay the cards on the table as it is NO NONSENSE approach, what all Canadians (including Quebec) needs to get our country on the right track again without the ambiguity and nonsensical double-speak of a nation within a nation absurdities brought to you by a party (the Conservatives that will do anything e.g. bow down to a Separatist Party for votes in order to avoid a loss of confidence) IT'S NOT ROCKET SCIENCE PEOPLE.

 

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