Iggy at 30% Support?
Will leadership candidate Michael Ignatieff pull off a convincing win on "Super Weekend"?
Ignatieff has far and away the most caucus support with 35 MPs and seven Senators onside. But has his sometimes faltering campaign truly connected with Liberals at the constituency level? Some pundits say yes, Iggy has the support of 30% of Liberals.
We'll find out the Sept. 29 weekend when close to 5,000 delegates will be elected. If Ignatieff does well on the Super Weekend, we are sure to see some of the second tier candidates make a move. But to who?
Bob Rae differs with his former friends in the NDP. Despite some weasel words about "re-evaluating the mission", Rae says we should stick to our guns in Afghanistan.
"But we can't just snap our fingers and say this week that we lost too many troops and we have to come home," Rae said.
He said he opposes arbitrary deadlines for either curtailing or extending the mission and called the New Democratic Party position that Canada should pull out now "incoherent."
posted by Who's Next? @ 11:38 AM
3 comments
3 Comments:
The spin Iggy's campaign has been putting out is he will have close to 40% of delegates coming out of super weekend. If he's at 40%, he will win.
My bet is he will be much closer to 30%.
I still think DSM will come out:
1. Iggy
2. Kennedy
3. Rae
4. Dion
He needs at least 40% to win and my bet is on 25 if his camp is saying 30. Lots of different analysis show him at about 25%, which is not enough. Even at 35% I think he would lose. He needzs at least 40% to win and he doesn't have it.
If SB is saying 25 than I think Iggy's got 29%... Kennedy will by next at 18 and Rae at 16 & Dion at 14; Dryden and Brison with 7-9 each, leaving little for Volpe and the rest.
Iggy dearly needs a major endorsement after the 1st or 2nd ballot -- I only see Brison and possibly Martha crossing over, while Dryden's timing could be the big mo' for one of the other 3.
I think Iggy's toast if he doesn't have 38%+ after 2 ballots... It's likely a 4-5 ballot night.
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